Monfor Weekly Update

Monfor Weekly Update

The market experienced a relatively calm week, absorbing the recent central bank meetings and their implications for monetary policy. Authorities are cautious about early rate cuts, expressing concerns about cutting too soon. Economists are gradually adjusting their expectations in response.

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 0.85% around mid-year, but concerns about upside risks to inflation and persistently high pay settlements are prominent. The upcoming budget and the pressure for tax cuts contribute to the challenging macroeconomic environment.

In the US, the exceptionally strong payrolls report underscored the resilience of the underlying economy, making a March rate cut unlikely. Forecasters still anticipate an aggressive rate-cutting cycle of around 1.35% this year, potentially starting in May.

Europe might become the first major central bank to cut rates, possibly in April, given the challenging economic fundamentals within the bloc. Substantial drops in inflation and a gloomy growth outlook, especially in Germany, continue to pose challenges.

Geopolitical tensions persist with no clear resolution in sight, influencing market sentiment. China's ongoing economic weakness remains a drag on global growth, prompting authorities to consider additional stimulus.

On the exchanges, the strength of the dollar is shaping market dynamics, driven by the outperforming US economy, resulting in the recent lows for sterling and the euro. The upcoming week's extensive data releases are likely to contribute to increased market volatility.

Please note:  The news and information contained on this site should not be interpreted as advice or as a solicitation to offer to convert any currency or as a recommendation to trade.

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