Fed Holds Steady Amid Tariff-Driven Uncertainty
The US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged once again, maintaining the federal funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%. The accompanying statement echoed familiar sentiments: economic growth is continuing at a "solid pace", the labour market remains "strong", and inflation is still "somewhat elevated". The US dollar index edged higher in response, though gains were limited. Notably, the index opened above its 21-day moving average for the first time in over a month, albeit still below the 100 mark.

Despite the news, currency market reaction was relatively muted. Short-term rate differentials have recently had little sway over USD crosses. The dollar has eased slightly, largely due to the Fed’s acknowledgment of mounting risks around both inflation and unemployment, rather than any direct policy change. Policymakers highlighted growing uncertainty in the economic outlook, compounded by the higher-risk, tariff-laden landscape, and signalled the need for more clarity before adjusting course.

This cautious tone suggests rate cuts may be postponed, though when they do arrive, they could be more aggressive to make up for the delay — a scenario that may weigh further on the dollar in the months ahead. Investors will be closely watching forthcoming economic data for signs of whether stubborn inflation or weakening growth will force the Fed’s hand sooner than expected.

Pound Rises on Prospects of UK-US Trade Agreement
Sterling gained modestly overnight amid reports that President Trump is poised to announce a new trade deal with the United Kingdom later today. Should the agreement be confirmed, Britain would become the first country to de-escalate trade tensions with the US since the sweeping tariff regime was introduced on 2 April. Trump alluded to the announcement during a press event in the Oval Office — scheduled for 3pm UK time — though he stopped short of naming the country or disclosing any specifics.

The expected accord is one of 17 deals the US administration has been negotiating in a bid to scale back its wider tariff strategy. While the news has buoyed market sentiment, investors remain focused on how far the White House is prepared to reverse course and whether this sets a precedent for further deals with other nations. The timing of the announcement also adds to market optimism ahead of US-China talks due to take place this weekend in Switzerland.

Elsewhere, the UK signed a significant trade agreement with India on Tuesday — its most substantial post-Brexit deal to date — aimed at reinforcing global trade links in the face of disruption sparked by the US tariff drive.

BoE Rate Cut Baked In, Attention Turns to Guidance
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points today, lowering it from 4.5% to 4.25%. Market consensus points to an 8–1 split on the Monetary Policy Committee, with dovish member Swati Dhingra potentially advocating for a larger 50bp cut. This would mark the fourth reduction since August, as the Bank responds to a weakening growth outlook and subdued inflationary pressures driven by the global trade fallout.

With the move already priced in, markets will focus more intently on the Bank’s forward guidance. Investors will be keen to see whether policymakers support the nearly four quarter-point cuts currently anticipated by markets through 2025. The MPC may drop its previous ‘gradual’ stance — one cut per quarter — in favour of more flexibility, especially in light of increasing economic and geopolitical volatility following the Trump administration’s trade actions.

Recent data has shown stronger-than-expected UK GDP growth, with upward revisions to late 2024 and a positive surprise in Q1 2025. This rebalancing suggests 2025 growth forecasts could be lifted from 0.6% to 1.1%. However, growth in 2026 may be revised down due to tariff-related risks. Meanwhile, the inflation outlook is likely to be downgraded, as recent CPI readings have undershot previous expectations and falling energy prices are expected to exert further downward pressure. That said, services inflation remains persistently high, hovering around 5%.

The risks for GBP/USD are tilted to the downside if the BoE strikes a more dovish tone — especially as easing US trade tensions may lend support to the dollar. Although the pound has rallied by around 7.5% over the past three months, much of this reflects general dollar weakness rather than robust sterling fundamentals. Indeed, the Pound Index — which measures sterling’s performance against a basket of the UK’s key trading partners — has risen by just 2.3% over the same period.

From a seasonal perspective, the pound may struggle to sustain its recent gains: following a strong April, May has historically delivered average returns of -0.5% for GBP/USD.

US Dollar Softens Ahead of Crucial Fed Announcement

The US dollar continued to lose ground on Wednesday, with both the pound and the euro gaining in strength. The GBP/USD pair edged closer to its highest levels in three years, while EUR/USD also made notable gains as traders positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated policy announcement later this evening.

The Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates within the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, according to a Bloomberg poll of 94 analysts — all of whom forecast no change. Any deviation from this consensus would be considered highly unexpected.

Nevertheless, any indication that rate cuts may be on the horizon could put further downward pressure on the dollar. Recent remarks from Fed officials reflect a divided stance, with some concerned about inflation risks linked to tariffs, while others are increasingly wary of a weakening labour market.

The US Dollar Index slipped to its lowest level in a week overnight and now sits just 1.3% above the three-year low. The Fed’s decision is scheduled for 7:00pm BST, followed by a press conference with Chair Jerome Powell at 7:30pm.

Sterling Nears Key Levels as Trade Developments Emerge

Sterling’s gains also come amid signs of a potential breakthrough in trade relations. The Financial Times reports that the UK and US are close to finalising a deal that would ease tariffs on British steel and automotive exports by introducing more favourable thresholds.

This follows news of a trade agreement between the UK and India. Per the BBC, bilateral trade between the two nations reached £41 billion last year, and the British government anticipates this figure could grow by a further £25.5 billion annually by 2040 under the new deal.

Technically, GBP/USD is approaching resistance at its three-year high. Despite the possibility of a short-term pullback, the pair remains above key moving averages, suggesting any dips may be temporary and part of a broader upward trend. Provided the current momentum holds, a move towards 1.3559 could be on the cards.

However, a failure to find support at the 21-day EMA (1.3248) or the 50-day EMA (1.3069) may lead to a more prolonged correction.

EU Considers Retaliatory Tariffs Amid Trade Tensions

On the European front, trade tensions with the US may escalate. According to Bloomberg, the European Union is weighing retaliatory tariffs worth approximately €100 billion on American goods, should ongoing trade talks fail to produce a mutually acceptable outcome.

Sources suggest the European Commission will present a formal proposal to US officials this week. Member states are expected to receive notification of the proposed measures as early as Wednesday, with a month-long consultation period to follow before any final decisions are made.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD has climbed close to the upper boundary of its Bollinger Bands, suggesting overbought conditions may be developing. Key support for the pair remains at the 21-day EMA of 1.1278.

Bank of England Outlook Dampens GBP/EUR Sentiment

The British Pound remains under pressure against the Euro as markets brace for the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. The GBP/EUR exchange rate has stalled below the 1.18 level, despite a modest recovery in late April fuelled by easing global risk aversion and a temporary improvement in investor sentiment following softer rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump.

This recovery appears to have lost momentum, however, with GBP/EUR now drifting lower amid rising concerns over economic stagnation in the UK. The pair has proven highly sensitive to global equity volatility, and with markets now in a holding pattern ahead of new trade developments between the U.S. and China, the support from fading volatility has evaporated.

Technical indicators signal a short-term downtrend, with a risk of a more significant move lower should the Bank of England adopt a dovish tone. Expectations are rising that the Bank will cut interest rates this week and indicate the likelihood of a follow-up move in June. This would mark a shift from the current pace of quarterly cuts, potentially triggering a sharper reaction in currency markets. A break below the 1.1708 support level would pave the way for a decline toward 1.16.

The latest S&P PMI survey underscores the economic fragility, with April's composite index slipping to 48.2 — signalling contraction for the first time in over two years. The economic drag is attributed in part to fiscal tightening measures, including higher employer National Insurance Contributions and a minimum wage hike. While inflation pressures remain persistent, the Bank appears committed to its view that inflation will fall back to 2.0% in 2026, allowing it to focus on supporting growth.

GBP/USD: Consolidation Before the Next Leg Higher

The Pound has held its ground against the U.S. Dollar, even as the broader USD weakens amid continued domestic political uncertainty and a lack of conviction from market participants. GBP/USD reached a recent high at 1.3441 before entering a period of consolidation, finding strong support at 1.3234. This area has so far held firm, affirming the prevailing uptrend.

Despite mixed economic signals from both sides of the Atlantic, market sentiment remains broadly supportive of GBP/USD. A lack of significant U.S. data releases this week and underwhelming follow-through on last week's strong U.S. jobs report suggest the Dollar is lacking upward momentum. President Trump's unpredictability continues to inject uncertainty into markets, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.

The Bank of England’s upcoming policy decision could introduce short-term volatility, especially if a more aggressive easing cycle is hinted at. However, downside in GBP/USD may be limited due to rising inflation expectations, which could temper the BoE’s dovish stance. Should the Bank revise its inflation forecasts higher, this could offer a counterbalance to rate cut expectations and help Sterling recover.

Furthermore, easing energy prices are expected to reduce future inflationary pressures, adding complexity to the Bank’s policy balancing act. In the bigger picture, continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar — driven by long-term structural concerns and trade headwinds — supports the outlook for a renewed push toward and beyond 1.3440 once current consolidation resolves.

Dollar and yields rise despite lingering economic worries

The US dollar and Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday, buoyed by a slightly better-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading. However, lingering fears of stagflation kept markets cautious. Two-year Treasury yields broke a five-day losing streak, rebounding from the 3.6% level. Meanwhile, the US dollar index climbed toward its 21-day moving average in an effort to reverse the downward trend in place since early February. That rally has so far stalled ahead of today’s key US jobs data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

April’s ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7, its lowest in five months, indicating continued contraction in the sector. While the headline figure wasn’t as disappointing as some had anticipated, the underlying details were mixed. Input prices rose but fell short of forecasts, and both new orders and employment figures improved slightly, yet remained below the 50 mark—suggesting ongoing weakness and reinforcing concerns over stagflation. The sector has faced persistent headwinds from elevated tariffs, and optimism has faded since Donald Trump’s presidency began, as businesses contend with falling demand and rising costs. Though the broader US economy has shown some resilience, risks are growing, particularly following a first-quarter GDP contraction—the first in three years—driven by a record surge in imports amid trade tensions.

All attention now turns to the April employment report, which is unlikely to fully reflect the recent impact of tariff-related announcements. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 138,000, a marked slowdown from March’s 228,000. A solid report would reduce the urgency for the Fed to lower interest rates next week or hint at future cuts. That said, early signs of labour market strain are emerging. According to the latest Challenger data, nearly 700,000 jobs have been cut over the past six months. As a result, May’s jobs data may come in significantly weaker, potentially increasing pressure on the Fed to support employment—posing another headwind for the dollar in the months ahead.

Euro heads for second weekly loss as risk appetite rises and geopolitical tensions linger

The euro is on track for its second consecutive weekly fall against the US dollar, pressured by stronger global risk appetite and lower market volatility, as investors grow more optimistic about potential trade agreements. Nevertheless, EUR/USD has managed to hold at its 21-day moving average so far, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact for the time being. Market focus today is on flash inflation data from the Eurozone, with expectations that the headline rate will move closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

In geopolitical developments, the euro found little support from the signing of a long-expected mineral deal between Ukraine and the United States. The agreement, which also saw the launch of a US-Ukraine investment fund presented by the Trump administration as a strategic and financial commitment, failed to shift sentiment. The euro is down 0.5% this week—its sharpest weekly drop since late March—and could fall further if US labour market data beats expectations, possibly driving EUR/USD below the $1.12 level if the 21-day average is breached.

Despite this pullback, the euro remains roughly 9% higher against the dollar for the year, trading well above its longer-term moving averages. Support for the currency continues to stem from a more favourable eurozone fiscal outlook and ongoing dollar softness. While tariffs may exert downward pressure on inflation and lead to further ECB rate cuts—potentially capping the euro’s gains—the region’s more supportive cyclical environment may play a greater role in shaping its longer-term performance.

Pound sees mixed fortunes as markets weigh global risks and domestic shifts

The British pound has delivered a varied performance this week, advancing most notably against the euro, New Zealand dollar, and Japanese yen—gaining over 1% against the latter following a notably dovish Bank of Japan update. Against the US dollar, however, sterling has held relatively flat near $1.33, while slipping against the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar.

Global sentiment continues to play a leading role in steering the pound. With equity markets staging a strong comeback and recovering all losses since “Liberation Day,” sterling has strengthened against traditional safe-haven currencies, excluding the dollar. Hopes of renewed trade dialogue between China and the US have further supported appetite for risk, helping to lift the pound in some crosses.

However, the outlook for UK interest rates has turned increasingly dovish. Markets are now pricing in four additional 25-basis-point cuts from the Bank of England this year, with the base rate expected to drop to 3.5%—the first time such pricing has been seen since last autumn. This repricing reflects concern that weakness in the US economy could have global repercussions. The pound, in turn, has come under pressure via falling rate differentials, diminishing its appeal to investors seeking yield.

Meanwhile, political developments have added a new layer of uncertainty. Reform UK, under the leadership of Nigel Farage, clinched a narrow win in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election—just six votes ahead after a recount. The result is a setback for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party had secured the seat with a commanding majority in the 2024 general election. The outcome highlights growing unease within Labour ranks over the rising traction of the populist right, as Reform continues to build momentum in key regions.