Trump's Tariff Reversal Adds to Market Uncertainty
Donald Trump has once again reversed course on tariffs, postponing duties on numerous goods from Canada and Mexico for another month. This marks the second consecutive month-long delay of his own tariffs, prolonging uncertainty that continues to unsettle financial markets. The tech-focused Nasdaq index, for instance, has dropped 10% from its recent peak—a decline classified as a market correction—while the US dollar is on track for its worst weekly performance in over two years.
While the dollar's position as a global reserve currency and safe-haven asset is unlikely to vanish overnight, this week’s shift away from it has been striking. The primary driver behind this trend is Trump's unpredictable policymaking, which has shaken confidence in the currency. Additionally, concerns over US economic growth and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve have kept US bond yields relatively stagnant compared to other major economies. On the macroeconomic front, the US trade deficit widened to a record high in January, fuelled by a 10% surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs. Meanwhile, job cuts have surged to their highest level since 2020, exacerbated by major layoffs at DOGE. However, a silver lining appeared as initial jobless claims came in below expectations, providing some reassurance.
Attention now turns to the latest US jobs report. Last month’s data presented a mixed picture for investors—hiring slowed, yet wage growth picked up, reinforcing concerns over inflation amid the ongoing tariff war. Headline payrolls increased by 143,000, falling short of the 175,000 forecast. However, upward revisions to previous months added a further 100,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.0%. For today’s report, analysts expect 170,000 new jobs to have been added in February, with the unemployment rate projected to hold at 4.0%.
Euro Rallies as German Yields Surge, but ECB Uncertainty Looms
Germany’s 10-year bond yield has jumped by a record 42 basis points this week, while the euro’s 4% surge against the US dollar ranks among its strongest gains ever. However, both assets have edged lower following a somewhat hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) press conference, where policymakers debated the necessity of further rate cuts. Markets now assign a 50% chance of another reduction in April. While the ECB remains data-driven, disagreements persist over the neutral rate, with signs of stronger growth and slowing disinflation potentially limiting further easing. European equities have benefited from ongoing monetary and fiscal support, but the ECB’s firmer stance has put the STOXX 600 on track for its first weekly decline in ten weeks.
Adding to the uncertainty, the tariff dispute continues to weigh on sentiment. The Trump administration’s latest decision to postpone tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods has left investors questioning whether European exports will be targeted next. If new tariffs are imposed, the ECB may be forced to extend its easing cycle, whereas a more stable trade environment and fiscal stimulus could justify holding rates steady. The euro-dollar exchange rate has met resistance at $1.0850 and now hinges on a weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report to reclaim its recent highs.
Sterling Holds Firm Against the Dollar but Slides Against the Euro
The pound remains resilient against the US dollar, trading near $1.29—around one cent above its five-year average. However, due to significant spending plans announced by Germany and the EU, coupled with rising European bond yields, sterling has weakened by 2% against the euro this week. This puts it on course for what could be its largest weekly decline in two years. The GBP/EUR downtrend may slow as it approaches its 50-week moving average, a key support level for over a year, currently sitting at €1.1878.
On the economic front, the final UK PMI data confirmed that the private sector grew modestly in February. While the services PMI was revised slightly lower, it still exceeded initial estimates of 50.8, helping to offset weakness in manufacturing. Meanwhile, a key leading indicator for UK GDP reached its highest level since 2017 late last month. Despite this, the British Chambers of Commerce recently downgraded its UK growth forecast, citing the combined impact of tax and trade pressures on businesses. However, with concerns over US economic growth mounting, the gap between UK and US growth rates is narrowing. This shift has also driven a notable increase in the UK-US interest rate differential, as markets price in further Federal Reserve rate cuts—both of which have contributed to sterling’s recent strength against the dollar.
Sterling has now entered overbought territory against the dollar, yet the probability of GBP/USD hitting $1.30 before the end of the month has surged to over 60%, up from just 14% a week ago, according to FX options pricing. Furthermore, traders hold their strongest conviction in five years that the pound will continue to strengthen in the coming weeks. However, from a one-month perspective, gains are likely to be capped due to heightened uncertainty surrounding global trade and foreign policy.