Sterling Slides as UK Inflation Cools More Than Expected

The latest UK inflation data for February came in lower than anticipated, leading to a decline in the value of the British Pound against the Euro, Dollar, and other major currencies. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, falling short of the forecasted 0.5%.

On an annual basis, CPI inflation dropped to 2.8% from January’s 3.0%, defying expectations of a more modest decline to 2.9%. The primary driver of this slowdown was the clothing and footwear sector, which recorded a year-on-year price decline of 0.6%—its first negative reading since October 2021.

Services inflation, a key metric monitored by the Bank of England, remained unchanged at 5.0%, while core CPI inflation, another critical measure, eased to 3.5% from 3.7%—again undershooting expectations of 3.6%.

Despite inflation remaining well above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, the lower-than-expected figures prompted a market reaction. The Pound weakened following the announcement, with the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate slipping from 1.20 to 1.1982, and the Pound-to-Dollar rate falling from 1.2940 to 1.2920.  The data has fuelled speculation of a further interest rate cut by the Bank of England in May, with traders now assigning an 80% probability to such a move. The increasing likelihood of a rate cut has coincided with a dip in UK bond yields and a weaker Pound.

However, the Bank of England remains constrained in its ability to aggressively reduce rates, as inflationary pressures persist. Economists caution that inflation could climb again, driven by rising National Insurance contributions and increasing energy and water costs.  Andrew Sentance, a former member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, has warned that CPI inflation could exceed 4% in the coming months, suggesting that "5% or more is on the cards for the autumn."

With inflationary forces still at play, the downside for UK bond yields and Sterling may be limited in the near term.

Treasury Faces Tough Choices as Spring Statement Approaches

With the Spring Statement on the horizon, Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is focused on recovering the £10bn in ‘headroom’ that has been lost. To achieve this, the Treasury is expected to scale back its future spending plans, with new welfare cuts already anticipated. The remainder of the savings is likely to be found through reductions in departmental budgets.

However, spending cuts alone may offer only a short-term solution to deeper fiscal challenges. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the UK has experienced the steepest rise in gross government debt among 40 advanced economies.

This surge in debt is largely attributed to sluggish economic growth and the lasting financial impact of government measures taken during the pandemic, alongside rising energy costs. In a climate of slow growth and elevated interest rates, reducing public debt as a proportion of GDP is becoming an increasingly difficult task.

US Dollar Struggles as Economic Uncertainty Grows

The US Dollar remains on course for its worst monthly performance in over a year, with a decline of 3.2%.

Optimism that Trump’s tariffs would bolster US economic growth has now given way to concerns over stagflation and recession, as investors grow increasingly doubtful about the administration’s economic approach. Consumer confidence took a sharp downturn in March, with the Conference Board’s index falling to 92.9—its lowest reading in four years. The expectations component suffered an even steeper decline, dropping nearly 10 points to a 12-year low, signalling heightened anxiety among households over rising prices and worsening economic conditions.

Federal Reserve officials, meanwhile, continue to adopt a cautious stance. Governor Adriana Kugler pointed to an increase in inflation expectations and higher goods prices, reinforcing the central bank’s reluctance to ease monetary policy too soon. Her remarks suggest that policymakers remain wary of premature rate cuts, particularly given recent inflation surprises that have kept concerns over price pressures alive.

Adding to market uncertainty is the lack of clarity surrounding US trade policy. Trump hinted on Monday that some of his proposed tariffs might not take effect on 2 April, sparking speculation that the administration could take a more flexible approach. However, his decision to introduce “secondary tariffs” on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil has injected further unpredictability into US trade relations, raising fears of wider economic and diplomatic consequences.

Euro’s Prospects Remain Mixed Amid Tariff Uncertainty

While the euro has faced recent pressure, supportive fiscal and monetary policies are expected to drive further gains in the future or at least mitigate some of the impact of US tariffs on the Eurozone. Investor confidence and business activity in the region are showing signs of improvement, pushing bond yields higher. However, currency traders remain cautious ahead of Trump’s impending tariff deadline next week, particularly as the euro is set for its strongest monthly performance in over two years—making profit-taking a likely scenario.

Lingering uncertainty over Trump’s retaliatory tariffs could keep demand high for safe-haven assets, including the US dollar, in the coming days. As with many of Trump’s policy decisions, the situation remains fluid, with no outcome certain until the president makes an official announcement.

Nonetheless, Germany’s historic stimulus measures and the broader Eurozone’s proactive fiscal policies could help cushion the economic blow from tariffs, reducing potential downside risks for the euro. However, given its recent strength, some of the euro’s upside may already be factored into market pricing.

Sterling Faces Mixed Fortunes as Markets Weigh Economic Signals

The pound started the week on a firmer footing against major global currencies, buoyed by fresh PMI data indicating the fastest expansion in UK business activity in six months—an encouraging sign of economic momentum in early 2025. However, its gains were quickly reversed as stronger-than-expected US PMI figures shifted market sentiment, dragging GBP/USD lower. The pair remains stuck within a tight range, with $1.30 acting as an upper barrier and $1.28 providing support. Against the euro, sterling has slipped 1.4% this month but continues to trade two cents above its two-year average of €1.17.

A surge in financial and consumer services demand propelled the UK’s services sector to its strongest growth since August, surpassing market forecasts. In contrast, manufacturing continues to struggle, with the sector shrinking for a sixth straight month and hitting its lowest reading since late 2023. Nevertheless, with services accounting for 80% of UK economic output, their resilience bodes well for overall growth in the first quarter, following a sluggish second half of 2024.

Meanwhile, expectations of Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts have been dialled back after last week’s slightly hawkish policy stance. With wage pressures and inflation remaining persistent, markets are questioning how much room the BoE has to lower borrowing costs this year. Notably, the latest PMI data revealed a sharp rise in service sector input prices, largely driven by wage inflation and suppliers passing on higher costs.

As a result, money markets now see a 60% likelihood of a 0.25% BoE rate cut in May, with total reductions for the year expected to reach 45 basis points—down from over 60 basis points priced in at the start of the month. This shift is likely to limit gains in short-term government bonds while offering some support to sterling through the yield channel. However, with key inflation data and Wednesday’s Spring Statement on the horizon, fresh volatility could lie ahead for the pound.

US Economy Sends Mixed Signals as Markets Stay Upbeat

The latest economic data from the United States paints a conflicting picture, with manufacturing slipping back into contraction territory as the sector’s PMI dipped below 50. Inflationary pressures in manufacturing have surged to their highest level in nearly two years, largely due to tariffs. Meanwhile, business confidence for the year ahead has dropped to its second-lowest level since October 2022, reflecting growing unease over demand and policy direction under Trump’s administration.

Despite these concerns, investors chose to focus on the positives. The composite PMI surged to 53.5, surpassing expectations, driven by a strong rebound in the services sector. After hitting a 15-month low in February, services activity rebounded to a three-month high, fuelled by stronger customer demand, improved business inflows, and better weather conditions. With this resurgence, fears of an imminent recession appear to be fading.

That said, a disconnect remains between different sets of economic data. While softer indicators, such as sentiment surveys, have underperformed in recent months, more concrete measures—including employment, industrial production, and consumer spending—have held up well. This divergence is adding to uncertainty over the true state of the economy and complicating the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The Fed remains highly data-driven, balancing the risk of cutting rates too soon—potentially reigniting inflation—against the danger of keeping rates elevated for too long, which could hamper growth.

For now, selling pressure on the US dollar is easing, supported by strong PMI data and diminishing fears of a slowdown. Reports also suggest that Trump’s upcoming tariff measures on April 2 may be softer and more targeted than initially feared. However, even if trade tensions and recession risks intensify, the dollar is unlikely to fall out of favour entirely, given its traditional role as a safe-haven currency during periods of heightened market uncertainty.

USD

Concerns over trade policies, inflation risks, and the Federal Reserve’s next moves are fuelling uncertainty across financial markets. Economic data presents a mixed picture—business confidence surveys hint at a slowdown driven by fears of tariffs and fiscal tightening, yet employment and manufacturing figures indicate resilience. This disconnect has deepened market unease, prompting the Fed to scale back its growth forecasts, while the OECD warns that US trade policies could weigh on global economic momentum.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged these risks but emphasised that concrete data has yet to confirm a significant economic downturn. Despite this, the US dollar has struggled to benefit from its usual safe-haven status, as investors assess the long-term consequences of policy shifts.

This week, investors will be paying close attention to the early estimates of March’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, which will shed light on economic activity across key global sectors. In the United States, expectations point to a slowdown, with manufacturing PMI forecast to drop from 52.7 in February to 51, while the services sector is also predicted to weaken, slipping from 51 to 49.5. A downturn in these indicators could suggest a loss of economic momentum, potentially weighing on the US dollar.

Meanwhile, markets remain on edge as they await President Trump’s upcoming announcement on 2 April regarding a fresh round of “reciprocal tariffs” designed to tackle trade imbalances. While these measures are expected to be more precisely targeted than previous proposals, their wider economic ramifications remain unclear, keeping investors in a cautious stance.

GBP

The British pound has seen a mixed performance lately, shaped by global trade tensions, monetary policy shifts, and domestic economic pressures. GBP/USD has remained above $1.29, supported by the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2025. However, the currency remains exposed to broader market jitters and geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, GBP/EUR has climbed back above €1.19, as the euro appears to have already priced in optimism surrounding fiscal reforms in Europe.

In the coming days, sterling’s trajectory will be influenced by key economic data and policy developments. This week’s flash PMIs will offer insight into how business activity is faring amid policy uncertainty, while upcoming inflation and employment figures will provide a clearer picture of the UK’s economic health and the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook. The BoE’s decision to keep interest rates on hold last week lent some stability to the pound, but any downside surprise in inflation could trigger a shift in market expectations, weighing on sterling.

The most closely watched event for the pound this week is Wednesday’s Spring Statement, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves will address the challenges of rising debt interest payments and broader fiscal constraints. Investors will be paying close attention to updates from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) for any indications of tax adjustments or public spending changes.

For now, GBP/USD and GBP/EUR remain in a delicate equilibrium, caught between domestic resilience and external pressures. While the pound draws support from steady growth prospects and a relatively firm stance from the BoE, increasing trade frictions with the US and global economic uncertainties could limit further gains.

EUR

The euro’s decline showed no signs of abating on Friday, with EUR/USD dropping to $1.08 after a third consecutive day of losses. The currency had been set for a third straight weekly advance, but weaker-than-expected economic data and a strengthening US dollar reversed its momentum.

Consumer confidence across the Eurozone took a sharper-than-expected hit in March, with the index sinking to -14.5, dashing hopes of an improvement. A similar slump in the wider EU measure reinforced fears that households remain hesitant despite a slowdown in inflation. In France, manufacturing sentiment continued its downward spiral, with the industry climate indicator slipping to 96—the lowest level since November. A significant weakening in foreign demand weighed on order books, highlighting ongoing challenges for Europe’s industrial sector.

The euro’s pullback is largely driven by renewed strength in the US dollar, as investors reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. While the Fed left interest rates unchanged last week, officials reiterated their forecast for two rate cuts this year, though inflation concerns remain prominent. Meanwhile, market participants are bracing for potential trade turbulence ahead of Trump’s planned tariff announcement on 2 April, which could put further strain on global commerce and Europe’s economic prospects.

Recent euro gains have been partly fuelled by Germany’s fiscal expansion, but with much of that now factored into the market, upward potential appears limited. The European Central Bank’s cautious approach further adds to the uncertainty, as policymakers weigh sluggish growth against persistent inflation. If economic conditions continue to deteriorate, speculation over a rate cut in the near future could gather pace, adding further downside pressure on the euro. For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable, with risks tilted towards further losses if the dollar extends its rebound.

Bank of England Keeps Interest Rates Steady as Inflation Concerns Grow

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England has voted overwhelmingly, by a margin of 8-1, to keep interest rates unchanged. This decision highlights a growing sense of unease among committee members regarding the persistent rise in inflation since February.

With inflation anticipated to hit 4.0% in the near future, doubts are emerging over whether it will steadily decline to the 2.0% target by 2026 as previously projected.

"Although inflation is expected to ease later on, the Committee will remain vigilant for any indications of prolonged inflationary pressures," the Bank stated.

Following the announcement, the Pound strengthened against the Euro, extending its daily gains. However, GBP/USD slipped as the US dollar experienced broad-based strength.

The decision comes in the wake of another strong set of wage growth figures released earlier in the day, reinforcing the view that the economy has yet to see the kind of deflationary pressures necessary to justify lowering the Bank Rate to 2.0%.

Additionally, the Bank’s latest inflation expectations survey points to an unsettling rise in inflation concerns, raising the risk of ingrained inflationary trends as workers push for higher wages and businesses adjust their prices accordingly.

Euro Under Pressure Amid Market Jitters and Trade Disputes

The euro remains under strain as financial markets turn increasingly risk-averse. Earlier this week, EUR/USD suffered its sharpest daily drop in March and is now on track for its first weekly decline in three. The recent slide has been compounded by cautious remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, which have dented confidence in the common currency.

Addressing European lawmakers on Thursday, Lagarde warned of slowing economic growth but downplayed the likelihood of inflation surging if the EU retaliates against US tariffs. She noted that a 25% tariff imposed by the US on European imports could reduce eurozone growth by 0.3 percentage points in the first year, with EU countermeasures potentially deepening the impact to 0.5 percentage points. While the initial effects would be most severe, inflationary pressures are expected to diminish over time, suggesting the ECB is unlikely to respond with rate hikes.

At the same time, developments in Ukraine, including progress towards a ceasefire, have introduced fresh optimism but also new concerns about Europe's economic and energy stability.

Ongoing tensions over US-EU trade relations, including renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump, continue to undermine the euro’s stability. For now, EUR/USD remains in limbo, caught between shifting investor sentiment and economic policy expectations.

US Economic Indicators Show Resilience Amid Uncertainty

US economic data released yesterday painted a mixed picture. Weekly jobless claims saw a slight uptick to 223,000, yet they remain near historically low levels, suggesting that the labour market continues to hold steady despite wider economic challenges.

In contrast, the housing market showed unexpected strength, with existing home sales rising by 4.2% in February to an annualised 4.26 million. This surge was driven by pent-up demand and stable mortgage rates, encouraging more buyers to step back into the market.