Last week, GBP hit a new six-month low against the EUR, and technical indicators on the charts suggest a potential further decline in the coming days unless UK PMI numbers surpass those of the Eurozone. Prior to Thursday's data release, the UK Autumn Statement is anticipated, and if the government takes decisive actions to boost business investment and productivity despite limited fiscal space, it could provide some support to GBP.

Nevertheless, GBP is facing pressure compared to its continental counterpart, raising doubts about whether this week's events can halt its decline. Last week, GBP/EUR touched a fresh six-month low, almost breaking €1.14, largely due to a below-consensus inflation print that increased expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024.

The upcoming Autumn Statement on Wednesday is expected to outline updated tax and spending plans, influencing the GBP's value significantly. The current government's emphasis on sustainable finance, led by Sunak and Hunt, reduces the likelihood of a major Pound decline following this year's Autumn Statement.

Despite fiscal constraints limiting the potential for tax cuts and spending increases, signs suggest a focus on supporting businesses ahead of a consumer-oriented budget statement in spring 2024.  GBP's performance may hinge on whether the government convinces markets it has effectively boosted UK productivity.

Thursday's release of the October PMI survey at 09:30 GMT is crucial, with GBP exchange rates expected to respond to any surprises. Forecasts for the S&P Global/CIPS manufacturing PMI in November are 45.0, services at 49.5, and the composite PMI at 48.8. Positive deviations in the data could benefit GBP, particularly considering the prevailing negative sentiment towards the UK economy.

GBP’s performance at the end of the week may depend on how the Eurozone PMIs for November compare, released just before the UK's. Eurozone manufacturing PMI is forecast at 43.5, services at 48, and the composite reading at 46.7. If the Eurozone PMIs outshine the UK's, Pound-Euro could test lower levels in the 1.13s.

Following recent central bank meetings, markets have experienced volatility, accentuated by statements from UK officials suggesting that peak interest rates may have been reached, and potential rate cuts could commence from June next year. The current focus is on upcoming economic data, specifically anticipating a significant drop in inflation to around or below 5%, along with scrutiny of job market data, where signs of easing are hoped for by the Bank of England.

Friday’s UK growth numbers revealed zero growth for the third quarter, underscoring underlying economic fragility and painting a bleak outlook. Despite prior rate tightening, its impact on consumers is yet to fully materialize, and the economy faces ongoing unprecedented challenges, exacerbated by the uncertainty surrounding UK and US elections.

In the United States, the forthcoming critical inflation report holds the key to short-term market momentum. While the US economy continues to outperform, this strength is already well-reflected in market pricing.

Meanwhile, Europe braces for significant data releases next week, including growth and inflation figures that will significantly influence short-term market sentiment. The European Central Bank appears poised to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, potentially as early as March.

Expect heightened volatility on the exchanges in the coming week, driven by a deluge of economic data releases that will shape market direction against a backdrop of elevated uncertainty and subdued confidence.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism regarding the normalization of inflation levels, foreseeing a return to the target of two percent by the end of 2025. However, he cautioned that the elevated cost of borrowing would persist for an extended period. Speaking at an event in Dublin, Bailey emphasized that it's premature to discuss reducing interest rates, aligning the Bank's stance with the Fed and ECB.

Bailey stated, "It's too early to talk about cutting rates. The market will form its view on the future path of interest rates, but we are clear—we're not considering that. Policy will remain restrictive for an extended period." Despite his optimism about meeting the inflation target within two years, Bailey acknowledged the ongoing efforts required to achieve this outcome.

Addressing the impact of Brexit on the UK economy's openness, Bailey, as a public official, refrained from taking a position on Brexit itself. He acknowledged the reduction in the UK's economic openness but anticipated the establishment of new trading relationships globally, contingent on a commitment to openness and free trade.

Regarding the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in monetary policy, Bailey expressed scepticism about its utility in medium-term forecasting. He highlighted that machine learning's focus on predicting the immediate future using extensive data might not align with the structural modelling needed for the Bank's medium-term forecasts in monetary policy.

The Bank of England has decided to maintain its interest rates at 5.25%, which is the highest level in 15 years. They are likely to keep rates steady until the latter half of next year when rate cuts are anticipated to begin. The vote last week resulted in a split of 6-3.

Concerns about inflationary pressures, particularly due to elevated wage growth, persist, while the growth outlook is notably weak. The Bank estimates that half of the tightening measures implemented so far have yet to fully impact the real economy.

Meanwhile, the US central bank has also decided to maintain its rates at a 22-year high. Market sentiment suggests that we may be at the peak of rates, leading to a more risk-friendly environment. Treasury yields experienced a significant drop, and equity markets rallied.

In the Eurozone, economic data is showing signs of improvement, but the underlying fundamentals remain weak, with a high risk of recession, even though headline inflation has fallen to a two-year low of 2.9%. Analysts predict that the central bank will keep interest rates at their current levels before becoming the first to start cutting rates, possibly as early as March next year.

In the foreign exchange markets, there has been some weakening of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision. However, confidence levels are low. GBP/USD continues to exhibit volatility within a range of 1.2000 to 1.2500, while GBP/EUR has surpassed the psychologically significant 1.1500 level.

Looking ahead, we have a week filled with UK-focused economic data. The week kicks off with the Construction PMI on Monday morning, followed by Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech on Wednesday. The highlight of the week is expected to be on Friday, with UK GDP forecasted to turn negative. In the United States, there will be Initial Jobless Claims to watch out for on Thursday.