Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey expressed optimism regarding the normalization of inflation levels, foreseeing a return to the target of two percent by the end of 2025. However, he cautioned that the elevated cost of borrowing would persist for an extended period. Speaking at an event in Dublin, Bailey emphasized that it's premature to discuss reducing interest rates, aligning the Bank's stance with the Fed and ECB.
Bailey stated, "It's too early to talk about cutting rates. The market will form its view on the future path of interest rates, but we are clear—we're not considering that. Policy will remain restrictive for an extended period." Despite his optimism about meeting the inflation target within two years, Bailey acknowledged the ongoing efforts required to achieve this outcome.
Addressing the impact of Brexit on the UK economy's openness, Bailey, as a public official, refrained from taking a position on Brexit itself. He acknowledged the reduction in the UK's economic openness but anticipated the establishment of new trading relationships globally, contingent on a commitment to openness and free trade.
Regarding the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in monetary policy, Bailey expressed scepticism about its utility in medium-term forecasting. He highlighted that machine learning's focus on predicting the immediate future using extensive data might not align with the structural modelling needed for the Bank's medium-term forecasts in monetary policy.