British Economy Expands in August, But Pound Faces Headwinds

The British economy grew by 0.2% in August, rebounding from zero growth in July, in line with market expectations. Despite this positive economic data, the pound has shown little to no reaction. After appreciating against 70% of its global peers in September, the pound has only gained against 16% of them so far in October. The primary drag on the currency has been a dovish repricing of Bank of England interest rate expectations, although UK bond yields have risen to their highest levels since July, likely in response to higher US yields and anticipation of the upcoming UK Budget at the end of the month.

Additionally, the rise in oil prices and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East have further limited demand for risk-sensitive currencies, including the British pound. Energy-importing nations like the UK have been particularly impacted. However, the euro appears even more vulnerable, as reflected by the pound's modest 0.7% decline against the euro this month, compared to a larger 2.5% drop against the US dollar. With the dollar benefiting from safe-haven flows ahead of a tight US election, GBP/USD downside risks are increasing, and a break below $1.30 could signal further declines. A Republican victory in the US elections poses a significant risk to the pound, given its strong correlation with risk sentiment and the dollar's likely short-term rally in such a scenario.

Mixed US Economic Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Market participants evaluated a slightly higher-than-expected US inflation report alongside a worse-than-expected jobless claims figure. The contrasting data signals ongoing uncertainty in the tug-of-war between the labour market and inflation. However, the overall market reaction saw an increase in bets on a potential quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. This shift led to the largest daily drop in two-year US Treasury yields for the month, while the US dollar index marked its ninth consecutive day of gains.

US Election Uncertainty Drives Hedging Costs and FX Volatility

Markets have begun factoring in the risks surrounding the upcoming US election, leading to increased hedging costs and heightened foreign exchange (FX) volatility. The tight race between Trump and Harris has become too close to predict, with polls and betting markets fluctuating within the margin of error. As the November 5 election approaches, market price swings are expected to continue as shifting implied winning probabilities lead to constant repricing. A lean towards Trump in betting polls could boost the US dollar, while a rise in support for Harris may relieve some pressure on emerging market currencies.

French Budget Constraints and ECB Expectations Weigh on Euro

While not the primary factor behind the euro's recent weakness, French budgetary constraints have added to the downside pressure on the currency. The European Central Bank has signalled that next week’s October meeting is "live," with markets anticipating a 25 basis point cut in benchmark policy rates. Meanwhile, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, causing the rate differential to move against the EUR/USD pair. As a result, the currency pair is likely to close the week below the $1.10 level after remaining above it for seven consecutive weeks.

US Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of CPI Inflation Report

The US dollar remained unchanged following the release of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting minutes last night. The minutes revealed that nearly all participants believed the risks of rising inflation had lessened, while the risks to employment had grown. After its longest rally in over two years, the dollar is taking a breather as markets await the release of the US CPI inflation report later today.

A closer look at the Fed’s meeting minutes shows that the recent 50 basis point rate cut should not be viewed as a sign of a weakening economic outlook or as an indication that the pace of policy easing would accelerate beyond what participants deemed appropriate. Additionally, almost all members expressed confidence that inflation was on track to reach the 2% target sustainably. While today’s inflation report is expected to show further moderation, bolstering the Fed's projected easing in the months ahead, new inflationary pressures could still emerge. Rising tensions in the Middle East have driven up energy markets, potentially pushing oil prices back above $100 per barrel. Policymakers remain concerned about a repeat of 1970s-style inflation, which would offer strong support to the dollar and US yields.

Sterling Struggles Amid BoE Dovish Stance, Dollar Strengthens Ahead of US Election

The pound is still reeling from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s dovish remarks last week. GBP/USD is struggling to regain the $1.31 level, while GBP/EUR remains near the lower end of the €1.19-€1.20 range. However, the BoE is expected to adopt a more gradual approach to monetary policy easing compared to its global counterparts, which may help limit further sterling losses, provided there are no major global risk-off events.

Meanwhile, it’s becoming increasingly evident that the US dollar may stay firm leading up to the US election in November. The dollar’s higher yields and safe haven appeal suggest greater downside risk for GBP/USD compared to GBP/EUR, especially given the European Central Bank’s dovish stance and weak economic data from Europe, which is likely driving the widening UK-German yield spread. A dip below $1.30 against the dollar is possible this month, though GBP/EUR should find support around €1.19. 

Once key risk events like the UK Budget and US election are out of the way, currency traders are expected to shift focus back to monetary policy expectations. Money markets are pricing in a BoE rate cut of about 38 basis points by December, compared to around 50 basis points from both the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

If upcoming economic data remains relatively stable, interest rate differentials could allow the pound to perform better against the dollar and euro. However, a sharp downside surprise in UK services inflation or weak activity data could prompt a more significant dovish shift in BoE rate expectations, further eroding sterling's year-to-date gains.

Euro Weakens Further as US Markets Surge, France Faces Investor Concerns

The euro extended its recent decline, falling to its lowest level since mid-August during yesterday's session. EUR/USD dropped below the $1.10 mark, sliding further to the low $1.09 range. In contrast, the US equity benchmark, the S&P 500, reached another record high and is on track for its best yearly performance ever. This surge in risk appetite has done little to prevent the euro's fall from $1.12 just a week ago.

France is grappling with restoring investor confidence in its sovereign debt as the Prime Minister introduces new measures aimed at reducing the budget deficit to 5%. Additionally, the recent rally in Chinese markets, driven by stimulus measures, has lost momentum, leaving the euro without much support. A downside surprise in today’s US inflation report may be needed to halt the euro’s decline temporarily.

On a positive note, German industrial production grew by 2.9% in August, marking its best monthly performance in nearly three years. However, more robust macroeconomic data will be required to shift sentiment. The Eurozone economic surprise index remains negative and has stayed that way throughout the second half of 2024.

Foreign Investors Adjust US Asset Holdings Amid Shifting Rate Cut Expectations

Foreign investors have been steadily increasing their holdings of US assets, expecting future rate cuts to drive yields lower. However, strong US jobs data has prompted investors to reduce these bets, which has, in turn, supported higher US yields and bolstered the dollar's rebound over the past week. Despite some dovish remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers, traders largely ignored them, with the market now pricing in just two rate cuts by year-end, down from three predicted just a few weeks ago.

Sterling Rallies Amid Oil Price Slump and Rising UK Yields

With oil prices dropping around 4% yesterday, the British pound rallied against G10 commodity-linked currencies like the Norwegian krone (NOK). While tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices up by over 15% in a month, increased output and demand concerns are acting as counterweights.

The pound, along with the euro, typically weakens when oil prices rise sharply due to the UK and many European nations being net importers of oil, which negatively impacts their terms of trade. This dynamic could be significant if Middle East tensions continue to escalate. 

Another key development is the rise in UK bond yields, with the 10-year yield hitting a three-month high above 4%. However, this hasn't strengthened the pound as expected. The yield gap between UK and German bonds is now the widest in over a year, driven by differing expectations for interest rate cuts and growing concerns over the UK's upcoming budget. Despite this, the GBP/EUR exchange rate remains close to €1.19, still reeling from its largest daily sell-off in two years after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's dovish comments last week.

Global bond market fluctuations are largely influenced by changing expectations around US interest rates, but the rise in UK yields may also reflect growing speculation that the UK government will need to issue more debt to cover a fiscal deficit, dampening the pound's reaction to higher yields.

Euro Consolidates Amid Speculation of ECB Rate Cuts and Economic Uncertainty

The euro remains just below the $1.10 mark after experiencing its second-worst week of the year. Traders are increasingly expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at consecutive meetings in October and December, potentially bringing the deposit facility rate down to 3% from its peak of 4%.

This dovish shift in policy expectations reflects the ongoing weakness in the German economy and falling inflation, which is now below 2% in most European countries. Notably, German ECB board member Isabel Schnabel recently adopted a less hawkish stance, focusing on growth pressures as the labour market cools. This builds further momentum for easing monetary policy.

Additionally, concerns about France's ability to meet the Maastricht guideline of a 3% budget deficit continue to weigh on the euro. The risk premium on French government bonds compared to German bonds remains near its highest level since 2017. These factors suggest a lack of strong domestic drivers for a further EUR/USD rally, although an upward move cannot be ruled out entirely.

Focus on US economic developments may still help limit the euro's downside, especially if weaker macro data or signs of disinflation emerge across the Atlantic. However, with the US election approaching, policy uncertainty remains high, likely keeping demand for the US dollar steady and the euro's movement range-bound until the political landscape becomes clearer.

British Pound Under Pressure Amid Economic Data and Market Sentiment

The British pound remains under pressure this week, hitting its lowest level in nearly a month against the US dollar on Monday. GBP/USD dipped below $1.31, while GBP/EUR fell closer to €1.19, despite rising UK bond yields. The cautious market sentiment during the Asian session, fuelled by a lack of Chinese stimulus announcements, added to the pound’s struggles as it is a risk-sensitive currency.

Data released yesterday revealed that UK salaries increased at the slowest rate in three-and-a-half years in September, signalling a softening labour market. The rising number of job candidates and decreasing demand for staff contributed to wage growth for permanent hires slowing to its weakest since February 2021. This bolsters expectations of more aggressive rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE). However, despite the soft labour data, UK gilt yields surged to multi-month highs following the strong US jobs report, lending some support to the pound.

Additionally, today's data shows UK retail sales rose by 1.7% on a like-for-like basis in September compared to the same period last year, marking the fastest growth in six months, driven by higher spending on clothing as the holiday shopping season kicks off.

Despite the recent dip, the pound remains the best-performing currency year-to-date, up over 3% against the dollar. With speculative traders still net bullish on the pound, this could prompt profit-taking as year-end approaches, especially with upcoming uncertainties surrounding the UK Budget and the US presidential election.

Euro Struggles Below $1.10 as Economic Weakness and Rising Oil Prices Weigh

The euro remains under pressure, trading below $1.10 this morning, with European equities set to open lower. Chinese markets have also lost momentum since Friday, underperforming global peers. Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude climbing above $80 per barrel for the first time in six weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, impacting pro-cyclical currencies.

The euro's main challenge comes from the reduced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, coupled with continued weakness in the German economy. German factory orders dropped 5.8% in August, marking the steepest decline since January 2024. Inflation across major Eurozone economies has also fallen below 2%, increasing the likelihood of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) next week.

Although ECB policymakers have signalled the market to prepare for this rate cut, rising US Treasury yields, driven by strong economic data, have kept German Bund yields from falling. This alignment of monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed has weighed on the EUR/USD exchange rate, which fell from $1.12 to below $1.10 last week.