ECB Signals Confidence in Disinflation with Rate Cut, More Reductions Likely

The European Central Bank (ECB) reinforced its confidence in the ongoing disinflation process by unanimously approving a 25 basis point rate cut during its January meeting. While maintaining a meeting-by-meeting approach, concerns over weak economic growth make another rate cut in March highly probable, with further reductions expected in the coming months.

The ECB’s stance is supported by wage growth aligning with projections and survey data indicating a stable inflation outlook. Notably, the bank did not address the recent spike in energy prices or rising inflation expectations, suggesting these factors are not viewed as major obstacles to disinflation. Although GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter, the ECB remains optimistic about recovery, citing higher real incomes, looser financial conditions, and stronger foreign demand. However, risks persist, including potential trade tariffs, higher long-term interest rates, and labour market vulnerabilities.

During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided discussion on the neutral interest rate. However, her past remarks indicating a neutral range of 1.75% to 2.25% suggest that a March rate cut is highly likely, with another possible in April as the ECB shifts away from its restrictive stance. As the policy rate approaches 2%, debates among policymakers are expected to intensify.

Overall, the ECB’s latest meeting signalled a slightly more dovish stance than anticipated, easing concerns of a slowdown in rate cuts. Current projections indicate a 25 basis point reduction at each meeting until July, bringing the deposit rate to 1.75%—in line with the broad consensus on the neutral rate. The EUR/USD remained stable around the $1.04 level, showing little reaction to rate decisions from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve.

Pound Struggles Amid Risk Sentiment and Tariff Concerns

The pound has been highly sensitive to risk sentiment this week, reaching a four-week high against the USD on Monday before reversing course due to a global equity selloff and renewed tariff risks unsettling markets. While GBP/USD broke above a four-month descending trend line, it has struggled to reclaim the $1.25 level, with the 50-day moving average acting as a strong resistance point.

Like the euro, the pound’s recent weakness is largely tied to expectations surrounding the US economy and Federal Reserve policy. Strong US GDP data released yesterday fell short of expectations, slightly weighing on the dollar. The divergence between UK-US rate differentials and GBP/USD since November could partly reflect a tariff risk premium, but it also signals a lack of investor confidence in UK fiscal policy. The Chancellor’s speech this week failed to ease these concerns. However, gilts had already stabilized in recent weeks, and better-than-expected macro indicators—such as PMI and CBI surveys—have provided the pound with some domestic support.

Looking ahead, sterling could face renewed pressure if fiscal consolidation in March and a decline in services inflation in Q2 materialize, as this would likely increase bets on Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts. The BoE is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points next week, with only two additional cuts currently priced in for the year.

Market Uncertainty Rises Ahead of Tariff Deadline

The upcoming February 1st tariff deadline has added to market uncertainty, as investors grapple with the lack of clarity surrounding potential tariff rollouts by the Trump administration. Just two days ago, the White House confirmed plans to impose a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican goods starting February 1st. However, the absence of concrete details has made it difficult for markets to fully price in the potential impact.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has regained strength following a two-and-a-half-week decline that saw the US Dollar Index drop by 3% at its lowest point. Despite the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting being perceived as slightly more dovish than expected and US GDP figures missing forecasts, the dollar remains dominant in the FX market. Unless there is a significant deterioration in economic momentum, this trend is unlikely to shift—especially in the current politically charged and volatile environment.

ECB Decision Looms

The EUR/USD pair remains subdued ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement, hovering near 1.0405 after a slight dip in the previous session. Efforts to gain traction have been stifled by persistent dollar strength, driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, weak European inflation data, and a broader risk-off sentiment. The pair remains firmly below its 200-day moving average at 1.0770, reinforcing a bearish trend. Key support is at 1.0380, with a break lower potentially paving the way toward 1.0200. Resistance is seen at 1.0450, but the technical outlook suggests downside risks remain dominant unless the euro can reclaim the 1.0480-1.0500 region.

Economic conditions in the eurozone continue to deteriorate, with sluggish growth and rising concerns about a technical recession. Q4 2024 GDP figures point to stagnation, while PMI data signals ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy remains on solid footing, supported by strong consumer demand, tight labour markets, and corporate investment in AI-driven technologies. This stark contrast in economic performance continues to weigh on EUR/USD as investors favour the higher-yielding and more robust U.S. economy.

The ECB is widely expected to maintain a dovish tone heading into 2025, with multiple rate cuts likely in the first half of the year as inflation eases faster than anticipated. A weaker-than-expected German CPI reading (2.8% YoY) and slowing wage growth add to expectations that the ECB may act sooner rather than later. In contrast, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, with policymakers resisting premature rate cut bets, citing persistent inflation and economic resilience. This policy divergence continues to favour the U.S. dollar, keeping the euro under pressure. With the Fed on hold and the ECB likely to signal easing, EUR/USD is set to face further downside risks.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Dismisses Near-Term Cut Expectations

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% as widely anticipated, but its messaging made it clear that rate cuts are not imminent. While the Fed acknowledged signs of easing inflation, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that it remains too high and that the central bank needs more sustained progress before considering any policy shifts.

Markets were hoping for clearer guidance on potential rate cuts in 2025, but Powell dismissed such expectations, calling it “premature” to discuss easing. He cited strong economic fundamentals—including a robust labour market, steady consumer spending, and resilient growth—as reasons for maintaining a cautious stance. The Fed remains firmly data-dependent, meaning future decisions will hinge on incoming economic indicators.

Market reactions were muted, with initial moves reversing following Powell’s remarks. Stocks dipped before recovering some ground, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still closed lower as investors adjusted to the prospect of higher rates for longer. Bond yields, particularly the 10-year Treasury, edged higher as traders tempered expectations for near-term cuts. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained modestly, supported by its yield advantage.

While the Fed’s cautious stance may not be exciting for markets, it reinforces stability. Barring a significant shift in economic data, rate cuts seem unlikely in the next two meetings, keeping investors in a wait-and-see mode.

Muted Market Reaction to UK Chancellor Reeves’ Growth Plan

Despite the build-up surrounding UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ speech, financial markets responded with little enthusiasm. Investors showed minimal reaction to the government’s latest economic growth proposals, with both gilts and sterling largely unchanged. GBP/USD remains under pressure, trading in the lower $1.24 range—just three cents above its one-year low—while GBP/EUR holds around €1.19, still down over 1% for the year.

Reeves outlined ambitious plans to stimulate economic growth, pledging to accelerate investment and leverage net zero initiatives as an industrial opportunity. Notably, she backed a third runway at Heathrow and highlighted a significant increase in capital spending, with government investment averaging 2.6% of GDP over the next five years—substantially higher than the 1.9% allocated by the previous administration. However, inflation concerns persist, as evidenced by a more than 80-basis-point rise in the two-year inflation breakeven rate since Reeves’ autumn budget. This increase coincided with Donald Trump’s election victory, which fuelled global inflation fears, pushing up yields and strengthening the U.S. dollar.

GBP/USD remains under pressure, struggling to sustain any meaningful push above $1.25. Ongoing concerns over trade policy and broader risk sentiment contribute to its downside bias. However, from a technical standpoint, the pair appears to have broken out of its four-month downtrend. To confirm a shift in momentum, GBP/USD will need to maintain levels above $1.24.

Tariffs, AI Disruptions, and the Fed: A Market Caught in the Crossfire

Overshadowing a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision is no easy feat, regardless of how uneventful a particular meeting may seem. Yet this week, a relentless wave of tariff rhetoric from President Trump and the disruptive "DeepSeek shock" in the AI sector have managed to divert attention. Tuesday’s trading session underscored just how volatile politically driven markets can be. A single comment from Trump, advocating for steeper tariffs than those proposed by his officials, was enough to send investors flocking to the U.S. dollar, which strengthened against all G10 currencies. With the February 1st deadline approaching, the first round of tariff rollouts is imminent, including new levies on chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel.

Despite these distractions, Wednesday’s Fed decision remains pivotal in shaping global monetary policy in the coming months. Policymakers are expected to hold rates steady, pausing the easing cycle that began in September. This decision unfolds against a complex backdrop of escalating trade tensions and AI-driven market turmoil, which has triggered a sharp equity sell-off. However, the Fed’s room to maneuver remains limited. Markets have fully priced in an unchanged rate stance, and with the labour market showing resilience, any deviation could be risky. Inflation has trended favourably over the past year, but the recent slowdown in disinflation gives the Fed little incentive to make an aggressive shift.

With a strong U.S. economy and looming tariff uncertainties, it would likely take a major global market downturn to push the Fed toward a dovish stance in early 2024. The balancing act between risk sentiment and monetary policy was evident this week, as equity market turbulence marginally increased expectations of future rate cuts. Moving forward, the Fed’s ability to navigate these competing forces will determine whether this pause turns into a prolonged hold or a return to rate easing later in the year.

Euro Struggles as Markets Bet on Aggressive ECB Rate Cuts

Traders are increasingly betting on significant rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, driven by concerns over the Eurozone’s sluggish economic outlook. Growth remains fragile, business sentiment is weak, and consumer spending lacks momentum, fueling expectations of policy easing to support demand. However, persistent inflationary pressures—both domestic and global—complicate the ECB’s decision-making.

Although inflation has cooled from its peak, underlying price pressures, particularly in wages and services, remain sticky. Inflation expectations, after reaching a low, have started to rise again. At the same time, global risks—including supply chain disruptions, volatile commodity prices, and potential trade tensions—pose fresh challenges, limiting the ECB’s ability to ease aggressively.

For now, EUR/USD remains heavily influenced by U.S. market developments. After peaking around $1.0530 earlier this year, the euro has slipped into the low $1.04 range amid selling pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. The currency now awaits further direction from central bank decisions and looming tariff risks. So far, its performance aligns with expectations of a bottoming phase, with little room for significant upside. This is further supported by declining bond market risk premia, as the French-German yield spread narrows from over 90 basis points last year to 72 basis points, signalling renewed investor interest in French bonds.

Rachel Reeves’ Fiscal Strategy in Focus as Markets Seek Clarity

Amid recent instability in UK assets and a growing disconnect between sterling and gilt yields, Rachel Reeves’ speech today has captured market attention. With limited fiscal headroom, she faces mounting pressure to tighten spending plans while simultaneously identifying new investment avenues to stimulate economic growth. Investor sentiment will be crucial—a well-received strategy could strengthen sterling, while uncertainty may trigger further volatility in UK markets.

A key proposal under consideration is the "surplus release" plan, which would unlock corporate pension scheme surpluses—worth tens of billions of pounds—for reinvestment in British businesses and infrastructure. Additionally, markets anticipate government backing for major infrastructure projects, including a potential third runway at Heathrow Airport. These initiatives aim to revitalize the UK economy by attracting investment and fostering long-term growth.

Sterling and gilt movements will depend on how effectively Reeves conveys her economic vision. If her proposals are viewed as both pro-growth and fiscally responsible, gilt yields could rise in an orderly manner, signalling confidence in the UK’s long-term prospects. Such a scenario could push GBP/USD above $1.25 and GBP/EUR toward €1.20. However, a lack of clarity or doubts over policy execution could weigh on investor confidence, putting renewed pressure on the pound.

Dollar Poised for Rebound Amid New Tariff Push

Following its steepest weekly decline in months due to softer tariff rhetoric, the dollar appears set for a recovery. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to advocate for new universal tariffs on U.S. imports, starting at 2.5% and increasing gradually. This policy shift is expected to sustain uncertainty, dampen risk sentiment, and boost the USD alongside heightened market volatility.

Nvidia, a leading beneficiary of AI chip investments, saw its shares plummet by approximately 17%, erasing nearly $600 billion in market value—the largest single-day loss for any company. Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, climbed nearly 1% against the US dollar as risk aversion spread from equities and bonds into the FX markets. Persistent concerns over AI investments, compounded by Trump's latest tariff threats, have continued to weigh on risk sentiment.

Euro Rises Amid AI Disruption and Positive Economic Signals

Cautious optimism is emerging among euro buyers as the currency benefits from a mix of AI-driven market upheaval and improving European economic data. The “DeepSeek shock”—an announcement of a ground-breaking AI spinout from Zhejiang University, featuring an open-source model outperforming industry leaders at lower costs—sparked a broad sell-off in U.S. equity markets.

Typically, such risk-off sentiment would drive investors toward safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, both of which gained against the euro. However, EUR/USD defied expectations on Monday, climbing above the $1.05 mark for the first time this year. Investors appear to be rethinking the “U.S. equity exceptionalism” narrative, redirecting flows away from the dollar despite falling stock prices.

Adding to the euro’s momentum, European macroeconomic data continues to show signs of stabilization. Recent indicators, including PMIs and the Ifo index, have exceeded forecasts over the past two sessions. The Ifo Current Conditions Index notably rose to 86.1, its highest reading since August 2024.

Despite these encouraging developments, the euro’s potential for further gains remains limited. Weak economic growth prospects and escalating trade tensions could constrain its upside in the near term.

Pound Weakens Amid Risk Aversion and Domestic Inflation Concerns

The British pound, a risk-sensitive currency, has faced renewed selling pressure this week against safe-haven peers such as the USD, JPY, and CHF. GBP/USD recently broke above the downtrend line that had guided trading since last October but encountered resistance at its 50-day moving average. While the pair remains about 3% above its 1-year low, it is over 7% below its 2024 peak.

On Monday, both the pound and the euro gained ground against the dollar despite the "DeepSeek shock" disrupting market sentiment. However, by Tuesday, renewed tariff threats from Donald Trump caused both currencies to underperform the dollar.

Domestically, UK food prices surged at their fastest pace in nine months at the start of 2025, according to British Retail Consortium data. This development intensifies inflation concerns ahead of next week's Bank of England meeting, keeping stagflation fears alive. This has contributed to a recent decoupling between rising gilt yields and the pound’s performance, further weighing on the currency.