US Election Betting Odds Shift

US Election Betting Odds Shift

USD Closes Week Steady Amid Reduced Trump Bets and Weakening Economic Data

The USD remained stable at the end of last week as investors scaled back their bets on a Trump presidency. Meanwhile, US economic data reflected a slowdown, with lower manufacturing output and reduced job growth contributing to the dollar's flat performance.  

Ahead of the US presidential election, traders are preparing for potential market swings, adjusting their positions and hedging against uncertainty. While some of these positions have unwound over the past week, recent polling data shows Kamala Harris gaining favour in swing states, as betting odds for a Trump win continue to decrease. EUR/USD opened the week stronger, rebounding from $1.0760 to $1.0880 at interbank (IB), reflecting the dip in Trump’s winning odds. The EUR, YEN, and GBP are expected to stay highly responsive to election developments.

The outcome of the US election will be a key factor for the GBP/USD pair in the near term. A Trump victory could drive the pair down toward $1.26 at IB, whereas a Harris presidency is likely to support it above the $1.30 level at IB.

British Pound Faces Selling Pressure Amid UK Budget Concerns and Imminent Rate Cut

The British pound has encountered selling pressure as investor sentiment soured over the latest UK budget. Additionally, anticipation of another interest rate cut by the Bank of England this week has weighed on the currency.  A 25 basis point interest rate cut is expected, the cut has long been 'in the price' of the Pound and is unlikely to sway the market. However, the guidance pertaining to the potential for another cut in December will be important.

 

Please note:  The news and information contained on this site should not be interpreted as advice or as a solicitation to offer to convert any currency or as a recommendation to trade.

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