Confirmed by final official data on Friday, Germany's economy remained stagnant in the second quarter, further contributing to a grim forecast as the nation grapples with a slowdown in its industrial sector and persistent inflation. According to comprehensive data provided by the federal statistics agency Destatis, Europe's largest economy reported no growth between April and June compared to the preceding quarter. This matches the initial data release from the previous month, which aligned with predictions made by analysts surveyed by the financial data firm FactSet.
By achieving no growth, Germany has officially emerged from a period of decline that began around the beginning of the year, marked by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction that technically qualified as a recession. Ruth, the president of Destatis, remarked, "After experiencing modest declines in the previous two quarters, the German economy achieved stabilization in the spring." The economy found support in improved consumer spending and increasing investments. However, a notable contributor to the German GDP, exports, saw a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter.
Unfortunately, these figures offer little solace to policymakers who are contending with a multitude of economic challenges. These challenges encompass persistent high inflation triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lackluster exports due to complications in key markets like China, manufacturing weaknesses, and the repercussions of rising interest rates. Notably, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Germany will be the only major advanced economy to contract this year.
Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING, noted that this data "will hardly settle the debate regarding whether Germany is becoming the new 'sick man' of Europe. In reality, both the near-term and long-term prospects appear far from promising." Adding to the pessimistic assessments, the Bundesbank central bank stated earlier this week that Germany's "uninspiring" economy is poised to continue its stagnation through the third quarter. The bank's monthly report indicated that the country is "still navigating a period of frailty."
While Germany's annual inflation rate easing to 6.2 percent in July primarily due to declining energy prices, it remains significantly higher than the European Central Bank's targeted rate of two percent.