The collapse of SVB bank has posed the greatest challenge to financial markets since the 2008 banking crisis, prompting authorities to take measures to prevent any contagion and restore confidence.
The fixed income markets have experienced significant turbulence, increasing pressure on the Fed ahead of the upcoming rate decision. Despite underlying inflationary pressures remaining high, we anticipate a 0.25% hike from the US central bank. However, the expected peak has been substantially lowered due to the market fallout from the bank's failure.
In the UK, analysts have conflicting views on whether the Bank of England will raise rates by 0.25% next week or wait until the May meeting, given the buoyant job market and uncomfortably high inflation. The markets now expect a peak of 4.25%, with possible rate cuts in the following year.
The budget's passage elicited minimal market response, likely meeting the chancellor's expectations.
Despite market turbulence, the European central bank raised its benchmark rate by 0.50%, reflecting its hawkish stance.
Rising global geopolitical tensions remain a growing concern, weighing on market sentiment.
On the exchanges, sterling has outperformed, reaching a monthly high of 1.2200 against the dollar and surpassing 1.1400 versus the Euro.