The projected peak in global interest rates is being revised upward due to persistently high inflation. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on March 23, which would take rates to 4.25%. However, crucial inflation and jobs data released before the meeting will be crucial to the outcome of what is likely to be another split vote. Additional rate hikes are expected in the coming months, with a forecasted terminal rate of 4.65%.
Nationwide's house price data showed the most significant annual decline since 2012, and mortgage approvals also dropped significantly due to higher borrowing costs and the continuing squeeze on real incomes. Analysts are predicting a 10% drop in house values this year.
The US economy remains robust, and the Fed is expected to raise rates by at least 0.25% this month, with the projected peak now at 5.50% by mid-year.
In Europe, strong inflation data this week reinforces the possibility of more aggressive rate increases in the coming months, with an anticipated increase of 0.50% this month, as the central bank remains particularly hawkish.
The next critical focus point is the US payrolls data, which is due to be released on Friday.