The yen remains the dominant story across FX, with USD/JPY extending its decline through 155 and breaking below the lows seen around this summer’s joint US-Japan intervention. The move reflects a broader repricing of Japanese policy rather than one single catalyst, with expectations for faster BoJ tightening, potential repatriation flows and the unwinding of sizeable short-yen positions all adding momentum. Elsewhere, the dollar remains sensitive to next week’s Fed decision, sterling is trading against a more uncertain UK fiscal backdrop, while the euro is holding firm ahead of an ECB meeting where expectations are already heavily tilted towards further tightening. With several major central bank decisions approaching, relative policy expectations are once again driving the direction of the major crosses.

FX markets begin the week with a familiar tension between resilient US data, uncertain central-bank policy and growing political risk. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US payrolls report briefly lifted the dollar, but the move faded quickly, suggesting investors remain reluctant to chase the currency higher without clearer confirmation from inflation data. The yen remains volatile as Bank of Japan speculation adds another layer to G10 price action, while sterling looks technically vulnerable and the euro continues to balance Fed uncertainty against weaker regional fundamentals. With markets still divided over September policy decisions, this week’s US CPI release is likely to provide the clearest catalyst for a more decisive move across major currency pairs.

September is shaping up to be one of the most important periods of the year for currency markets.

Within just seven days, the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England will all make interest-rate decisions, creating a concentrated period of event risk for the euro, US dollar and pound.

The ECB goes first on 10 September, followed by the Federal Reserve on 15/16 September, before the Bank of England completes the sequence on 17 September.

FX markets head into the end of the week with central bank expectations firmly back in control. The yen has been the standout performer as investors unwind carry trades and increase bets on further Bank of Japan tightening, while softer Federal Reserve expectations have taken some of the shine off the dollar. The euro has benefited from the move lower in the greenback, although positioning remains cautious, while sterling is facing a more difficult backdrop as rising UK borrowing costs, fiscal uncertainty and narrowing rate support weigh on sentiment. With US payrolls due today and several major central bank decisions approaching, volatility across the major currency pairs could remain elevated.

FX markets are reaching a potential turning point, with the dollar losing momentum just as volatility returns elsewhere. Weak US labour data has raised fresh questions over the Fed outlook, but higher energy prices and stubborn inflation are stopping markets from turning decisively bearish on the greenback. At the same time, a sudden surge in the yen has reignited intervention speculation, sterling is coming under pressure from growing UK fiscal concerns, and the euro is being pulled between a hawkish ECB and rising energy costs. With US payrolls approaching, the next move across major currencies could be significant.

Global bond markets remain under pressure, with yields across developed economies climbing towards levels not seen for almost two decades. Renewed US-Iran hostilities have pushed Brent crude back above $90 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns and forcing markets to reassess how far central banks may need to tighten policy.

September opens with the FX market finely balanced between shifting rate expectations, growing policy uncertainty and renewed geopolitical risk. The dollar remains caught between higher US yields and persistent concerns over fiscal credibility, while the euro continues to show surprising resilience and sterling holds firm despite a more fragile domestic backdrop. With inflation, labour-market data and major central bank decisions all approaching, the next few se

FX markets are trading cautiously this morning as investors prepare for Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address as Federal Reserve Chair. The dollar is holding close to a one-week high, while sterling and the euro have both eased against the greenback as traders avoid taking large positions before today’s keynote. Warsh’s comments on inflation, interest rates and the Fed’s policy direction could set the tone across currency markets heading into September. Beyond the US, the growing divergence between Bank of England and ECB expectations is keeping GBP/EUR contained, with neither side yet providing enough conviction for a sustained break from its recent range.