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FX markets look past geopolitics
Weekend talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland gave markets another reason to look past the worst-case scenario, with both sides describing the opening round as constructive and signalling a willingness to continue negotiations this week. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the story, while the Israel-Lebanon conflict still threatens progress towards de-escalation.
For FX, however, the geopolitical impulse is fading. After weeks of softer rhetoric, much of the good news looks priced in. Investors are shifting back to inflation, oil and policy rates, with hawkish central banks and rate differentials once again setting the tone.
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